Match Prediction
DR Congo vs Uzbekistan
Matchday 3 · Group K · Sat, Jun 27, 7:30 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Form guide
Last 10 internationals, most recent first (includes World Cup matches).
Predicted: DR Congo to win
DR Congo and Uzbekistan meet in Group K of the 2026 World Cup in what the numbers call a genuinely close contest. Just 11 ELO points separate #46 DR Congo from #49 Uzbekistan, so small margins, and the model leans only slightly one way.
Form backs the read up to a point. DR Congo are 4-2-4 (W-D-L) across their last 10, while Uzbekistan have gone 2-3-5 in their last 10. DR Congo arrive in the better recent rhythm, which the model weights alongside ranking and team metrics.
With no recent head-to-head to lean on, the group context matters most. Both sides know that points here shape who advances from Group K, and the model treats it as a one-off on a neutral footing.
Verdict: DR Congo are favoured at 45%, but with the draw at 20% and the underdog live, this is closer than the table suggests. A probability is not a certainty.
Prediction by a 5-factor model (ELO, form, metrics, home advantage, head-to-head) plus Monte Carlo simulation. A probability is not a certainty. See all predictions.