Match Prediction
Germany vs Ivory Coast
Matchday 2 · Group E · Sat, Jun 20, 4:00 PM ET · BMO Field, Toronto
Form guide
Last 10 internationals, most recent first (includes World Cup matches).
Full time
Germany 2 - 1 Ivory Coast
Germany won. Our prediction was correct.
We predicted: Germany to win
Germany face Ivory Coast as the two sides meet in Group E of the 2026 World Cup. Germany (#10) carry a meaningful 197-point ELO advantage over Ivory Coast (#34), enough to make them favourites without making the result a foregone conclusion.
Form backs the read up to a point. Germany are 8-1-1 (W-D-L) across their last 10, while Ivory Coast have gone 7-0-3 in their last 10. Germany arrive in the better recent rhythm, which the model weights alongside ranking and team metrics.
With no recent head-to-head to lean on, the group context matters most. Both sides know that points here shape who advances from Group E, and the model treats it as a one-off on a neutral footing.
Verdict: Germany are favoured at 50%, but with the draw at 17% and the underdog live, this is closer than the table suggests. A probability is not a certainty.
Prediction by a 5-factor model (ELO, form, metrics, home advantage, head-to-head) plus Monte Carlo simulation. A probability is not a certainty. See all predictions.