Match Prediction
Jordan vs Algeria
Matchday 2 · Group J · Mon, Jun 22, 11:00 PM ET · Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara
Form guide
Last 10 internationals, most recent first (includes World Cup matches).
Full time
Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria
Algeria won. Our prediction was correct.
We predicted: Algeria to win
Jordan face Algeria as the two sides meet in Group J of the 2026 World Cup. Algeria (#28) carry a meaningful 173-point ELO advantage over Jordan (#64), enough to make them favourites without making the result a foregone conclusion.
Form backs the read up to a point. Jordan are 0-2-8 (W-D-L) across their last 10, while Algeria have gone 4-3-3 in their last 10. Algeria arrive in the better recent rhythm, which the model weights alongside ranking and team metrics.
With no recent head-to-head to lean on, the group context matters most. Both sides know that points here shape who advances from Group J, and the model treats it as a one-off on a neutral footing.
Verdict: Algeria are favoured at 60%, but with the draw at 14% and the underdog live, this is closer than the table suggests. A probability is not a certainty.
Prediction by a 5-factor model (ELO, form, metrics, home advantage, head-to-head) plus Monte Carlo simulation. A probability is not a certainty. See all predictions.