Match Prediction
Uzbekistan vs Colombia
Matchday 1 · Group K · Wed, Jun 17, 10:00 PM ET · Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Predicted: Colombia to win
Uzbekistan and Colombia meet in Group K of the 2026 World Cup, but on paper this is a clear mismatch. Colombia (FIFA #12, 1693 ELO) tower over Uzbekistan (#49, 1469) by 224 rating points, the kind of gap that historically converts into a comfortable favourite. Our model gives the edge accordingly.
With no recent head-to-head to lean on, the group context matters most. Both sides know that points here shape who advances from Group K, and the model treats it as a one-off on a neutral footing.
Verdict: Colombia are favoured at 56%, but with the draw at 15% and the underdog live, this is closer than the table suggests. A probability is not a certainty.
Prediction by a 5-factor model (ELO, form, metrics, home advantage, head-to-head) plus Monte Carlo simulation. A probability is not a certainty. See all predictions.