Match Prediction
Australia vs Türkiye
Matchday 1 · Group D · Sun, Jun 14, 12:00 AM ET · BC Place, Vancouver
Full time
Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye
Australia won. Our prediction missed.
We predicted: Türkiye to win
Australia and Türkiye meet in Group D of the 2026 World Cup in what the numbers call a genuinely close contest. Just 18 ELO points separate #27 Australia from #22 Türkiye, so small margins, and the model leans only slightly one way.
With no recent head-to-head to lean on, the group context matters most. Both sides know that points here shape who advances from Group D, and the model treats it as a one-off on a neutral footing.
Verdict: Türkiye are favoured at 40%, but with the draw at 21% and the underdog live, this is closer than the table suggests. A probability is not a certainty.
Prediction by a 5-factor model (ELO, form, metrics, home advantage, head-to-head) plus Monte Carlo simulation. A probability is not a certainty. See all predictions.