Match Prediction
Austria vs Jordan
Matchday 1 · Group J · Wed, Jun 17, 12:00 AM ET · Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara
Form guide
Last 10 internationals, most recent first (includes World Cup matches).
Full time
Austria 3 - 1 Jordan
Austria won. Our prediction was correct.
We predicted: Austria to win
Austria and Jordan meet in Group J of the 2026 World Cup, but on paper this is a clear mismatch. Austria (FIFA #24, 1593 ELO) tower over Jordan (#64, 1391) by 202 rating points, the kind of gap that historically converts into a comfortable favourite. Our model gives the edge accordingly.
Form backs the read up to a point. Austria are 5-2-3 (W-D-L) across their last 10, while Jordan have gone 2-2-6 in their last 10. Austria arrive in the better recent rhythm, which the model weights alongside ranking and team metrics.
With no recent head-to-head to lean on, the group context matters most. Both sides know that points here shape who advances from Group J, and the model treats it as a one-off on a neutral footing.
Verdict: Austria are favoured at 56%, but with the draw at 15% and the underdog live, this is closer than the table suggests. A probability is not a certainty.
Prediction by a 5-factor model (ELO, form, metrics, home advantage, head-to-head) plus Monte Carlo simulation. A probability is not a certainty. See all predictions.