Match Prediction
Bosnia & Herz. vs Qatar
Matchday 3 · Group B · Wed, Jun 24, 3:00 PM ET · Lumen Field, Seattle
Form guide
Last 10 internationals, most recent first (includes World Cup matches).
Full time
Bosnia & Herz. 3 - 1 Qatar
Bosnia & Herz. won. Our prediction was correct.
We predicted: Bosnia & Herz. to win
Bosnia & Herz. and Qatar meet in Group B of the 2026 World Cup in what the numbers call a genuinely close contest. Just 57 ELO points separate #63 Bosnia & Herz. from #55 Qatar, so small margins, and the model leans only slightly one way.
Form backs the read up to a point. Bosnia & Herz. are 2-6-2 (W-D-L) across their last 10, while Qatar have gone 1-3-6 in their last 10. Bosnia & Herz. arrive in the better recent rhythm, which the model weights alongside ranking and team metrics.
With no recent head-to-head to lean on, the group context matters most. Both sides know that points here shape who advances from Group B, and the model treats it as a one-off on a neutral footing.
Verdict: Bosnia & Herz. are favoured at 43%, but with the draw at 20% and the underdog live, this is closer than the table suggests. A probability is not a certainty.
Prediction by a 5-factor model (ELO, form, metrics, home advantage, head-to-head) plus Monte Carlo simulation. A probability is not a certainty. See all predictions.