Match Prediction
Brazil vs Haiti
Matchday 2 · Group C · Fri, Jun 19, 8:30 PM ET · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Form guide
Last 10 internationals, most recent first (includes World Cup matches).
Full time
Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti
Brazil won. Our prediction was correct.
We predicted: Brazil to win
Brazil and Haiti meet in Group C of the 2026 World Cup, but on paper this is a clear mismatch. Brazil (FIFA #6, 1761 ELO) tower over Haiti (#83, 1292) by 469 rating points, the kind of gap that historically converts into a comfortable favourite. Our model gives the edge accordingly.
Form backs the read up to a point. Brazil are 6-2-2 (W-D-L) across their last 10, while Haiti have gone 3-1-6 in their last 10. Brazil arrive in the better recent rhythm, which the model weights alongside ranking and team metrics.
With no recent head-to-head to lean on, the group context matters most. Both sides know that points here shape who advances from Group C, and the model treats it as a one-off on a neutral footing.
Verdict: Brazil are strong favourites at 65%, with a draw at 12%. An upset is always possible in a single match, but the model sees this as one of the safer calls.
Prediction by a 5-factor model (ELO, form, metrics, home advantage, head-to-head) plus Monte Carlo simulation. A probability is not a certainty. See all predictions.