Group Stage
Group C
Advancement odds from 10,000 simulations.
Advancement odds
Group analysis
Brazil: Brazil (#6, 1761 ELO) return hungry after their 2022 quarter-final penalty shootout exit. A revamped squad built around Vinicius Jr, Rodrygo, and Endrick brings pace and direct dribbling that suits the wider pitches of North American stadiums perfectly.
Morocco: Morocco (#8, 1757 ELO) are separated from Brazil by just 4 ELO points - the tightest 1v2 gap of any group. The 2022 semi-finalists have matured into a genuinely elite unit under Regragui, with a defensive record that rivals any team in the tournament.
Scotland: Scotland (#43, 1498 ELO) reach their first World Cup since France 1998, ending a 28-year exile. Steve Clarke's side qualified ahead of Ukraine in a dramatic playoff; they bring passion and set-piece threat but face the two most evenly matched top teams in the draw.
Haiti: Haiti (#83, 1292 ELO) are World Cup debutants and the lowest-ranked side in the tournament at 1292 ELO. Their CONCACAF qualifying run was remarkable; they concede in volume against elite sides but their counter-attacking pace creates moments against anyone on a good day.
Key match
Brazil vs Morocco (June 13, SoFi Stadium) - the closest top-of-group clash in the tournament, with just 4 ELO points between #6 and #8; a genuine coin-flip that sets the tone for both teams' tournament trajectories.
Verdict
Brazil and Morocco both advance but in which order depends entirely on their opening head-to-head. Scotland compete fiercely but the gap to the top two is too large; Haiti will be eliminated early despite a memorable debut.