Match Prediction
Colombia vs Portugal
Matchday 3 · Group K · Sat, Jun 27, 7:30 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Form guide
Last 10 internationals, most recent first (includes World Cup matches).
Predicted: Portugal to win
Colombia and Portugal meet in Group K of the 2026 World Cup in what the numbers call a genuinely close contest. Just 71 ELO points separate #12 Colombia from #5 Portugal, so small margins, and the model leans only slightly one way.
Form backs the read up to a point. Colombia are 6-2-2 (W-D-L) across their last 10, while Portugal have gone 6-3-1 in their last 10. Colombia arrive in the better recent rhythm, which the model weights alongside ranking and team metrics.
With no recent head-to-head to lean on, the group context matters most. Both sides know that points here shape who advances from Group K, and the model treats it as a one-off on a neutral footing.
Verdict: Portugal are favoured at 43%, but with the draw at 20% and the underdog live, this is closer than the table suggests. A probability is not a certainty.
Prediction by a 5-factor model (ELO, form, metrics, home advantage, head-to-head) plus Monte Carlo simulation. A probability is not a certainty. See all predictions.