Match Prediction
Curaçao vs Ivory Coast
Matchday 3 · Group E · Thu, Jun 25, 4:00 PM ET · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Form guide
Last 10 internationals, most recent first (includes World Cup matches).
Full time
Curaçao 0 - 2 Ivory Coast
Ivory Coast won. Our prediction was correct.
We predicted: Ivory Coast to win
Curaçao and Ivory Coast meet in Group E of the 2026 World Cup, but on paper this is a clear mismatch. Ivory Coast (FIFA #34, 1533 ELO) tower over Curaçao (#82, 1295) by 238 rating points, the kind of gap that historically converts into a comfortable favourite. Our model gives the edge accordingly.
Form backs the read up to a point. Curaçao are 2-3-5 (W-D-L) across their last 10, while Ivory Coast have gone 7-0-3 in their last 10. Ivory Coast arrive in the better recent rhythm, which the model weights alongside ranking and team metrics.
With no recent head-to-head to lean on, the group context matters most. Both sides know that points here shape who advances from Group E, and the model treats it as a one-off on a neutral footing.
Verdict: Ivory Coast are favoured at 56%, but with the draw at 15% and the underdog live, this is closer than the table suggests. A probability is not a certainty.
Prediction by a 5-factor model (ELO, form, metrics, home advantage, head-to-head) plus Monte Carlo simulation. A probability is not a certainty. See all predictions.