Match Prediction
Egypt vs Iran
Matchday 3 · Group G · Fri, Jun 26, 11:00 PM ET · Lumen Field, Seattle
Form guide
Last 10 internationals, most recent first (includes World Cup matches).
Full time
Egypt 1 - 1 Iran
It finished level. Our prediction missed.
We predicted: Iran to win
Egypt and Iran meet in Group G of the 2026 World Cup in what the numbers call a genuinely close contest. Just 52 ELO points separate #29 Egypt from #20 Iran, so small margins, and the model leans only slightly one way.
Form backs the read up to a point. Egypt are 3-5-2 (W-D-L) across their last 10, while Iran have gone 4-5-1 in their last 10. Iran arrive in the better recent rhythm, which the model weights alongside ranking and team metrics.
With no recent head-to-head to lean on, the group context matters most. Both sides know that points here shape who advances from Group G, and the model treats it as a one-off on a neutral footing.
Verdict: Iran are favoured at 44%, but with the draw at 20% and the underdog live, this is closer than the table suggests. A probability is not a certainty.
Prediction by a 5-factor model (ELO, form, metrics, home advantage, head-to-head) plus Monte Carlo simulation. A probability is not a certainty. See all predictions.