Match Prediction
Egypt vs Iran
Matchday 3 · Group G · Fri, Jun 26, 11:00 PM ET · Lumen Field, Seattle
Full time
Egypt 1 - 1 Iran
It finished level. Our prediction missed.
We predicted: Iran to win
Egypt and Iran meet in Group G of the 2026 World Cup in what the numbers call a genuinely close contest. Just 52 ELO points separate #29 Egypt from #20 Iran, so small margins, and the model leans only slightly one way.
With no recent head-to-head to lean on, the group context matters most. Both sides know that points here shape who advances from Group G, and the model treats it as a one-off on a neutral footing.
Verdict: Iran are favoured at 43%, but with the draw at 20% and the underdog live, this is closer than the table suggests. A probability is not a certainty.
Prediction by a 5-factor model (ELO, form, metrics, home advantage, head-to-head) plus Monte Carlo simulation. A probability is not a certainty. See all predictions.