Match Prediction
Ivory Coast vs Ecuador
Matchday 1 · Group E · Sun, Jun 14, 7:00 PM ET · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Form guide
Last 10 internationals, most recent first (includes World Cup matches).
Full time
Ivory Coast 1 - 0 Ecuador
Ivory Coast won. Our prediction missed.
We predicted: Ecuador to win
Ivory Coast and Ecuador meet in Group E of the 2026 World Cup in what the numbers call a genuinely close contest. Just 62 ELO points separate #34 Ivory Coast from #23 Ecuador, so small margins, and the model leans only slightly one way.
Form backs the read up to a point. Ivory Coast are 7-0-3 (W-D-L) across their last 10, while Ecuador have gone 4-4-2 in their last 10. Ivory Coast arrive in the better recent rhythm, which the model weights alongside ranking and team metrics.
With no recent head-to-head to lean on, the group context matters most. Both sides know that points here shape who advances from Group E, and the model treats it as a one-off on a neutral footing.
Verdict: Ecuador are favoured at 40%, but with the draw at 22% and the underdog live, this is closer than the table suggests. A probability is not a certainty.
Prediction by a 5-factor model (ELO, form, metrics, home advantage, head-to-head) plus Monte Carlo simulation. A probability is not a certainty. See all predictions.