Match Prediction
Morocco vs Haiti
Matchday 3 · Group C · Wed, Jun 24, 6:00 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Full time
Morocco 4 - 2 Haiti
Morocco won. Our prediction was correct.
We predicted: Morocco to win
Morocco and Haiti meet in Group C of the 2026 World Cup, but on paper this is a clear mismatch. Morocco (FIFA #8, 1757 ELO) tower over Haiti (#83, 1292) by 465 rating points, the kind of gap that historically converts into a comfortable favourite. Our model gives the edge accordingly.
With no recent head-to-head to lean on, the group context matters most. Both sides know that points here shape who advances from Group C, and the model treats it as a one-off on a neutral footing.
Verdict: Morocco are strong favourites at 71%, with a draw at 9%. An upset is always possible in a single match, but the model sees this as one of the safer calls.
Prediction by a 5-factor model (ELO, form, metrics, home advantage, head-to-head) plus Monte Carlo simulation. A probability is not a certainty. See all predictions.