Match Prediction
Morocco vs Haiti
Matchday 3 · Group C · Wed, Jun 24, 6:00 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Form guide
Last 10 internationals, most recent first (includes World Cup matches).
Full time
Morocco 4 - 2 Haiti
Morocco won. Our prediction was correct.
We predicted: Morocco to win
Morocco and Haiti meet in Group C of the 2026 World Cup, but on paper this is a clear mismatch. Morocco (FIFA #8, 1757 ELO) tower over Haiti (#83, 1292) by 465 rating points, the kind of gap that historically converts into a comfortable favourite. Our model gives the edge accordingly.
Form backs the read up to a point. Morocco are 6-3-1 (W-D-L) across their last 10, while Haiti have gone 3-1-6 in their last 10. Morocco arrive in the better recent rhythm, which the model weights alongside ranking and team metrics.
With no recent head-to-head to lean on, the group context matters most. Both sides know that points here shape who advances from Group C, and the model treats it as a one-off on a neutral footing.
Verdict: Morocco are strong favourites at 65%, with a draw at 12%. An upset is always possible in a single match, but the model sees this as one of the safer calls.
Prediction by a 5-factor model (ELO, form, metrics, home advantage, head-to-head) plus Monte Carlo simulation. A probability is not a certainty. See all predictions.