Match Prediction
New Zealand vs Belgium
Matchday 3 · Group G · Fri, Jun 26, 11:00 PM ET · BC Place, Vancouver
Form guide
Last 10 internationals, most recent first (includes World Cup matches).
Predicted: Belgium to win
New Zealand and Belgium meet in Group G of the 2026 World Cup, but on paper this is a clear mismatch. Belgium (FIFA #9, 1735 ELO) tower over New Zealand (#85, 1282) by 453 rating points, the kind of gap that historically converts into a comfortable favourite. Our model gives the edge accordingly.
Form backs the read up to a point. New Zealand are 1-2-7 (W-D-L) across their last 10, while Belgium have gone 6-3-1 in their last 10. Belgium arrive in the better recent rhythm, which the model weights alongside ranking and team metrics.
With no recent head-to-head to lean on, the group context matters most. Both sides know that points here shape who advances from Group G, and the model treats it as a one-off on a neutral footing.
Verdict: Belgium are strong favourites at 69%, with a draw at 10%. An upset is always possible in a single match, but the model sees this as one of the safer calls.
Prediction by a 5-factor model (ELO, form, metrics, home advantage, head-to-head) plus Monte Carlo simulation. A probability is not a certainty. See all predictions.