Match Prediction
New Zealand vs Egypt
Matchday 2 · Group G · Sun, Jun 21, 9:00 PM ET · BC Place, Vancouver
Form guide
Last 10 internationals, most recent first (includes World Cup matches).
Full time
New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt
Egypt won. Our prediction was correct.
We predicted: Egypt to win
New Zealand and Egypt meet in Group G of the 2026 World Cup, but on paper this is a clear mismatch. Egypt (FIFA #29, 1563 ELO) tower over New Zealand (#85, 1282) by 281 rating points, the kind of gap that historically converts into a comfortable favourite. Our model gives the edge accordingly.
Form backs the read up to a point. New Zealand are 1-2-7 (W-D-L) across their last 10, while Egypt have gone 3-5-2 in their last 10. Egypt arrive in the better recent rhythm, which the model weights alongside ranking and team metrics.
With no recent head-to-head to lean on, the group context matters most. Both sides know that points here shape who advances from Group G, and the model treats it as a one-off on a neutral footing.
Verdict: Egypt are favoured at 60%, but with the draw at 13% and the underdog live, this is closer than the table suggests. A probability is not a certainty.
Prediction by a 5-factor model (ELO, form, metrics, home advantage, head-to-head) plus Monte Carlo simulation. A probability is not a certainty. See all predictions.