Match Prediction
Spain vs Cabo Verde
Matchday 1 · Group H · Mon, Jun 15, 12:00 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Full time
Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde
It finished level. Our prediction missed.
We predicted: Spain to win
Spain and Cabo Verde meet in Group H of the 2026 World Cup, but on paper this is a clear mismatch. Spain (FIFA #2, 1876 ELO) tower over Cabo Verde (#68, 1371) by 505 rating points, the kind of gap that historically converts into a comfortable favourite. Our model gives the edge accordingly.
With no recent head-to-head to lean on, the group context matters most. Both sides know that points here shape who advances from Group H, and the model treats it as a one-off on a neutral footing.
Verdict: Spain are strong favourites at 73%, with a draw at 9%. An upset is always possible in a single match, but the model sees this as one of the safer calls.
Prediction by a 5-factor model (ELO, form, metrics, home advantage, head-to-head) plus Monte Carlo simulation. A probability is not a certainty. See all predictions.