Group Stage
Group H
Live table plus advancement odds from 10,000 simulations.
Live table
Advancement odds
Group analysis
Spain: Spain (#2, 1876 ELO) enter as Euro 2024 champions with their best generation since 2012: Lamine Yamal (18), Nico Williams, Pedri, Rodri, and Fabián Ruiz form the most complete young squad in the tournament. Their tiki-taka 2.0 positional play is relentless and nearly impossible to stop for 90 minutes.
Uruguay: Uruguay (#17, 1673 ELO) under Marcelo Bielsa play an aggressive high-press that has transformed their historically defensive style. 203 ELO points below Spain, they are the group's clear second-placed qualifier; their CONMEBOL battle-hardening and physical intensity will earn them knockout progression.
Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia (#61, 1421 ELO) famously beat Argentina 2-1 in 2022 - but at 455 ELO points below Spain, repeating that magic is a different proposition entirely. Their high defensive line and intense press require perfect execution; one lapse against Yamal or Williams is match-ending.
Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde (#68, 1371 ELO) make their World Cup debut as outsiders who beat continental rivals in CAF qualifying. Fast and direct with physical wingers, they can cause problems for 45 minutes but are ultimately outclassed by the quality gap to Spain and Uruguay over a full group stage.
Key match
Spain vs Uruguay (June 17, Hard Rock Stadium) - 203-point ELO gap makes Spain 77% favourites, but Bielsa's pressing system can generate sustained periods of dominance; a close game decides the group winner.
Live verdict
Spain win Group H on 7 points (2W-1D-0L) and advance alongside runners-up Cabo Verde (3). Uruguay finish third and need a top-eight third-placed finish to survive, while Saudi Arabia are eliminated.