Match Prediction
Türkiye vs Paraguay
Matchday 2 · Group D · Fri, Jun 19, 11:00 PM ET · Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara
Form guide
Last 10 internationals, most recent first (includes World Cup matches).
Full time
Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay
Paraguay won. Our prediction missed.
We predicted: Türkiye to win
Türkiye face Paraguay as the two sides meet in Group D of the 2026 World Cup. Türkiye (#22) carry a meaningful 95-point ELO advantage over Paraguay (#41), enough to make them favourites without making the result a foregone conclusion.
Form backs the read up to a point. Türkiye are 7-1-2 (W-D-L) across their last 10, while Paraguay have gone 4-2-4 in their last 10. Türkiye arrive in the better recent rhythm, which the model weights alongside ranking and team metrics.
With no recent head-to-head to lean on, the group context matters most. Both sides know that points here shape who advances from Group D, and the model treats it as a one-off on a neutral footing.
Verdict: Türkiye are favoured at 47%, but with the draw at 19% and the underdog live, this is closer than the table suggests. A probability is not a certainty.
Prediction by a 5-factor model (ELO, form, metrics, home advantage, head-to-head) plus Monte Carlo simulation. A probability is not a certainty. See all predictions.