Paraguay

Outlook

On the numbers, Paraguay (FIFA #41, 1504 ELO) come in as underdogs who will need to overperform their rating. Across 10,000 simulations of Group D, the model has Paraguay advancing 59% of the time, so they are roughly even money to advance from their group. These are statistical estimates and update as results come in, not guarantees.

Paraguay have won 4 of their last 10 matches (40% win rate), scoring 12 and conceding 11 (1.2 for and 1.1against per game). This recent form feeds directly into the model's prediction for every match they play.