Match Prediction
Türkiye vs USA
Matchday 3 · Group D · Thu, Jun 25, 10:00 PM ET · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Form guide
Last 10 internationals, most recent first (includes World Cup matches).
Full time
Türkiye 3 - 2 USA
Türkiye won. Our prediction missed.
We predicted: USA to win
Türkiye and USA meet in Group D of the 2026 World Cup in what the numbers call a genuinely close contest. Just 74 ELO points separate #22 Türkiye from #16 USA, so small margins, and the model leans only slightly one way.
Form backs the read up to a point. Türkiye are 7-1-2 (W-D-L) across their last 10, while USA have gone 5-0-5 in their last 10. Türkiye arrive in the better recent rhythm, which the model weights alongside ranking and team metrics.
With no recent head-to-head to lean on, the group context matters most. Both sides know that points here shape who advances from Group D, and the model treats it as a one-off on a neutral footing.
Verdict: USA are favoured at 40%, but with the draw at 22% and the underdog live, this is closer than the table suggests. A probability is not a certainty.
Prediction by a 5-factor model (ELO, form, metrics, home advantage, head-to-head) plus Monte Carlo simulation. A probability is not a certainty. See all predictions.