USA

Outlook

On the numbers, USA (FIFA #16, 1673 ELO) sit in the mid-tier, dangerous on their day but not among the favourites. Across 10,000 simulations of Group D, the model has USA advancing 72% of the time, so they are strong favourites to advance from their group. As a co-host, USA also carry a home-advantage boost in the model whenever they play on home soil, which lifts their chances at the margins. These are statistical estimates and update as results come in, not guarantees.

USA have won 5 of their last 10 matches (50% win rate), scoring 21 and conceding 18 (2.1 for and 1.8against per game). This recent form feeds directly into the model's prediction for every match they play.