Mexico

Outlook

On the numbers, Mexico (FIFA #15, 1681 ELO) are one of the stronger sides and a credible contender to go deep. Across 10,000 simulations of Group A, the model has Mexico advancing 78% of the time, so they are strong favourites to advance from their group. As a co-host, Mexico also carry a home-advantage boost in the model whenever they play on home soil, which lifts their chances at the margins. These are statistical estimates and update as results come in, not guarantees.

Mexico have won 7 of their last 10 matches (70% win rate), scoring 19 and conceding 5 (1.9 for and 0.5against per game). This recent form feeds directly into the model's prediction for every match they play.