Sweden

Outlook

On the numbers, Sweden (FIFA #37, 1515 ELO) come in as underdogs who will need to overperform their rating. Across 10,000 simulations of Group F, the model has Sweden advancing 64% of the time, so they are roughly even money to advance from their group. These are statistical estimates and update as results come in, not guarantees.

Sweden have won 4 of their last 10 matches (40% win rate), scoring 22 and conceding 20 (2.2 for and 2.0against per game). This recent form feeds directly into the model's prediction for every match they play.