Match Prediction
Sweden vs Tunisia
Matchday 1 · Group F · Sun, Jun 14, 10:00 PM ET · Estadio BBVA, Monterrey
Form guide
Last 10 internationals, most recent first (includes World Cup matches).
Full time
Sweden 5 - 1 Tunisia
Sweden won. Our prediction was correct.
We predicted: Sweden to win
Sweden and Tunisia meet in Group F of the 2026 World Cup in what the numbers call a genuinely close contest. Just 32 ELO points separate #37 Sweden from #44 Tunisia, so small margins, and the model leans only slightly one way.
Form backs the read up to a point. Sweden are 3-3-4 (W-D-L) across their last 10, while Tunisia have gone 1-3-6 in their last 10. Sweden arrive in the better recent rhythm, which the model weights alongside ranking and team metrics.
With no recent head-to-head to lean on, the group context matters most. Both sides know that points here shape who advances from Group F, and the model treats it as a one-off on a neutral footing.
Verdict: Sweden are favoured at 47%, but with the draw at 18% and the underdog live, this is closer than the table suggests. A probability is not a certainty.
Prediction by a 5-factor model (ELO, form, metrics, home advantage, head-to-head) plus Monte Carlo simulation. A probability is not a certainty. See all predictions.