Group Stage
Group L
Live table plus advancement odds from 10,000 simulations.
Live table
Advancement odds
Group analysis
England: England (#4, 1826 ELO) enter under Thomas Tuchel with a significant tactical upgrade: defensive solidity and pressing intensity added to Premier League-quality attacking firepower. After three consecutive tournament semi-finals and finals without a win, Tuchel's system is designed specifically to break that psychological cycle.
Croatia: Croatia (#11, 1717 ELO) are the ultimate tournament team - runners-up in 2018, third in 2022, with the same experienced spine of Modrić (now 40), Kovačić, and Gvardiol. Their 1717 ELO speaks to consistent elite-level performance that exceeds their FIFA ranking expectations every major tournament.
Panama: Panama (#33, 1541 ELO) return to the World Cup as CONCACAF's third qualifier with 195 ELO points above Ghana. Their compact defensive organisation and set-piece threat earned qualification; they are unlikely to trouble England or Croatia but are competitive against Ghana for a respectable exit.
Ghana: Ghana (#73, 1346 ELO) return to the World Cup with their lowest ELO in over a decade. The Black Stars are in a rebuilding phase; 195 ELO points below Panama and 480 below England reflects their current standing. Young talent emerging from Europe-based development offers long-term hope.
Key match
England vs Croatia (June 23, MetLife Stadium) - 109-point ELO gap favours England 67%; a rematch of their 2018 semi-final and 2020 Euros showdowns that England lost both, making this the group's biggest psychological battle.
Live verdict
England win Group L on 7 points (2W-1D-0L) and advance alongside runners-up Croatia (6). Ghana finish third and need a top-eight third-placed finish to survive, while Panama are eliminated.