Match Prediction
Cabo Verde vs Saudi Arabia
Matchday 3 · Group H · Fri, Jun 26, 8:00 PM ET · NRG Stadium, Houston
Form guide
Last 10 internationals, most recent first (includes World Cup matches).
Full time
Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia
It finished level. Our prediction missed.
We predicted: Saudi Arabia to win
Cabo Verde and Saudi Arabia meet in Group H of the 2026 World Cup in what the numbers call a genuinely close contest. Just 50 ELO points separate #68 Cabo Verde from #61 Saudi Arabia, so small margins, and the model leans only slightly one way.
Form backs the read up to a point. Cabo Verde are 1-6-3 (W-D-L) across their last 10, while Saudi Arabia have gone 2-3-5 in their last 10. Cabo Verde arrive in the better recent rhythm, which the model weights alongside ranking and team metrics.
With no recent head-to-head to lean on, the group context matters most. Both sides know that points here shape who advances from Group H, and the model treats it as a one-off on a neutral footing.
Verdict: Saudi Arabia are favoured at 40%, but with the draw at 22% and the underdog live, this is closer than the table suggests. A probability is not a certainty.
Prediction by a 5-factor model (ELO, form, metrics, home advantage, head-to-head) plus Monte Carlo simulation. A probability is not a certainty. See all predictions.