Match Prediction
Ecuador vs Curaçao
Matchday 2 · Group E · Sat, Jun 20, 8:00 PM ET · Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Form guide
Last 10 internationals, most recent first (includes World Cup matches).
Full time
Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao
It finished level. Our prediction missed.
We predicted: Ecuador to win
Ecuador and Curaçao meet in Group E of the 2026 World Cup, but on paper this is a clear mismatch. Ecuador (FIFA #23, 1595 ELO) tower over Curaçao (#82, 1295) by 300 rating points, the kind of gap that historically converts into a comfortable favourite. Our model gives the edge accordingly.
Form backs the read up to a point. Ecuador are 4-4-2 (W-D-L) across their last 10, while Curaçao have gone 2-3-5 in their last 10. Ecuador arrive in the better recent rhythm, which the model weights alongside ranking and team metrics.
With no recent head-to-head to lean on, the group context matters most. Both sides know that points here shape who advances from Group E, and the model treats it as a one-off on a neutral footing.
Verdict: Ecuador are favoured at 57%, but with the draw at 15% and the underdog live, this is closer than the table suggests. A probability is not a certainty.
Prediction by a 5-factor model (ELO, form, metrics, home advantage, head-to-head) plus Monte Carlo simulation. A probability is not a certainty. See all predictions.