Match Prediction
France vs Senegal
Matchday 1 · Group I · Tue, Jun 16, 3:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford
Form guide
Last 10 internationals, most recent first (includes World Cup matches).
Full time
France 3 - 1 Senegal
France won. Our prediction was correct.
We predicted: France to win
France face Senegal as the two sides meet in Group I of the 2026 World Cup. France (#1) carry a meaningful 185-point ELO advantage over Senegal (#13), enough to make them favourites without making the result a foregone conclusion.
Form backs the read up to a point. France are 7-0-3 (W-D-L) across their last 10, while Senegal have gone 4-1-5 in their last 10. France arrive in the better recent rhythm, which the model weights alongside ranking and team metrics.
With no recent head-to-head to lean on, the group context matters most. Both sides know that points here shape who advances from Group I, and the model treats it as a one-off on a neutral footing.
Verdict: France are favoured at 51%, but with the draw at 17% and the underdog live, this is closer than the table suggests. A probability is not a certainty.
Prediction by a 5-factor model (ELO, form, metrics, home advantage, head-to-head) plus Monte Carlo simulation. A probability is not a certainty. See all predictions.