Group Stage
Group I
Live table plus advancement odds from 10,000 simulations.
Live table
Advancement odds
Group analysis
France: France (#1, 1877 ELO) are the world's top-ranked team with a squad of exceptional depth. Mbappé, Tchouaméni, Camavinga, Dembélé, and the next generation form an embarrassment of riches; even with squad rotation in the group stage, France have 11 starters who would walk into most other squads.
Senegal: Senegal (#13, 1692 ELO) are the dominant African force in this group, 141 ELO points above Norway at 1692. The 2022 AFCON champions carry the legacy of Sadio Mané's generation with a new wave of young talent; they qualify from this group on individual quality alone.
Norway: Norway (#31, 1551 ELO) possess two of Europe's best players in Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard, but the supporting cast has not consistently delivered at international level. They are 141 ELO points below Senegal and 326 below France; the group stage ceiling is a very distant second place.
Iraq: Iraq (#57, 1447 ELO) qualified through the AFC playoffs after finishing fourth in their group. Their defensive-minded 4-4-2 and physical aggression caused problems across Asia, but the quality jump to international football's top level is stark at 430 ELO points below France.
Key match
Senegal vs Norway (June 28, NRG Stadium) - Senegal's 141-point ELO lead makes them 69% favourites; the winner claims second place and a last-32 spot alongside France, making this the group's decisive fixture.
Live verdict
France win Group I on 9 points (3W-0D-0L) and advance alongside runners-up Norway (6). Senegal finish third and need a top-eight third-placed finish to survive, while Iraq are eliminated.