Match Prediction
Haiti vs Scotland
Matchday 1 · Group C · Sat, Jun 13, 9:00 PM ET · Gillette Stadium, Boston
Form guide
Last 10 internationals, most recent first (includes World Cup matches).
Full time
Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland
Scotland won. Our prediction was correct.
We predicted: Scotland to win
Haiti and Scotland meet in Group C of the 2026 World Cup, but on paper this is a clear mismatch. Scotland (FIFA #43, 1498 ELO) tower over Haiti (#83, 1292) by 206 rating points, the kind of gap that historically converts into a comfortable favourite. Our model gives the edge accordingly.
Form backs the read up to a point. Haiti are 3-1-6 (W-D-L) across their last 10, while Scotland have gone 5-0-5 in their last 10. Scotland arrive in the better recent rhythm, which the model weights alongside ranking and team metrics.
With no recent head-to-head to lean on, the group context matters most. Both sides know that points here shape who advances from Group C, and the model treats it as a one-off on a neutral footing.
Verdict: Scotland are favoured at 52%, but with the draw at 17% and the underdog live, this is closer than the table suggests. A probability is not a certainty.
Prediction by a 5-factor model (ELO, form, metrics, home advantage, head-to-head) plus Monte Carlo simulation. A probability is not a certainty. See all predictions.