Match Prediction
Iran vs New Zealand
Matchday 1 · Group G · Mon, Jun 15, 9:00 PM ET · SoFi Stadium, Inglewood
Full time
Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand
It finished level. Our prediction missed.
We predicted: Iran to win
Iran and New Zealand meet in Group G of the 2026 World Cup, but on paper this is a clear mismatch. Iran (FIFA #20, 1615 ELO) tower over New Zealand (#85, 1282) by 333 rating points, the kind of gap that historically converts into a comfortable favourite. Our model gives the edge accordingly.
With no recent head-to-head to lean on, the group context matters most. Both sides know that points here shape who advances from Group G, and the model treats it as a one-off on a neutral footing.
Verdict: Iran are favoured at 64%, but with the draw at 12% and the underdog live, this is closer than the table suggests. A probability is not a certainty.
Prediction by a 5-factor model (ELO, form, metrics, home advantage, head-to-head) plus Monte Carlo simulation. A probability is not a certainty. See all predictions.