Match Prediction
Iran vs New Zealand
Matchday 1 · Group G · Mon, Jun 15, 9:00 PM ET · SoFi Stadium, Inglewood
Form guide
Last 10 internationals, most recent first (includes World Cup matches).
Full time
Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand
It finished level. Our prediction missed.
We predicted: Iran to win
Iran and New Zealand meet in Group G of the 2026 World Cup, but on paper this is a clear mismatch. Iran (FIFA #20, 1615 ELO) tower over New Zealand (#85, 1282) by 333 rating points, the kind of gap that historically converts into a comfortable favourite. Our model gives the edge accordingly.
Form backs the read up to a point. Iran are 3-6-1 (W-D-L) across their last 10, while New Zealand have gone 1-2-7 in their last 10. Iran arrive in the better recent rhythm, which the model weights alongside ranking and team metrics.
With no recent head-to-head to lean on, the group context matters most. Both sides know that points here shape who advances from Group G, and the model treats it as a one-off on a neutral footing.
Verdict: Iran are strong favourites at 65%, with a draw at 12%. An upset is always possible in a single match, but the model sees this as one of the safer calls.
Prediction by a 5-factor model (ELO, form, metrics, home advantage, head-to-head) plus Monte Carlo simulation. A probability is not a certainty. See all predictions.