Match Prediction
Norway vs Senegal
Matchday 2 · Group I · Mon, Jun 22, 8:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford
Full time
Norway 3 - 2 Senegal
Norway won. Our prediction missed.
We predicted: Senegal to win
Norway face Senegal as the two sides meet in Group I of the 2026 World Cup. Senegal (#13) carry a meaningful 141-point ELO advantage over Norway (#31), enough to make them favourites without making the result a foregone conclusion.
With no recent head-to-head to lean on, the group context matters most. Both sides know that points here shape who advances from Group I, and the model treats it as a one-off on a neutral footing.
Verdict: Senegal are favoured at 50%, but with the draw at 17% and the underdog live, this is closer than the table suggests. A probability is not a certainty.
Prediction by a 5-factor model (ELO, form, metrics, home advantage, head-to-head) plus Monte Carlo simulation. A probability is not a certainty. See all predictions.