Match Prediction
Paraguay vs Australia
Matchday 3 · Group D · Thu, Jun 25, 10:00 PM ET · Levi's Stadium, San Francisco Bay Area
Form guide
Last 10 internationals, most recent first (includes World Cup matches).
Full time
Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia
It finished level. Our prediction missed.
We predicted: Australia to win
Paraguay and Australia meet in Group D of the 2026 World Cup in what the numbers call a genuinely close contest. Just 77 ELO points separate #41 Paraguay from #27 Australia, so small margins, and the model leans only slightly one way.
Form backs the read up to a point. Paraguay are 4-2-4 (W-D-L) across their last 10, while Australia have gone 3-3-4 in their last 10. Paraguay arrive in the better recent rhythm, which the model weights alongside ranking and team metrics.
With no recent head-to-head to lean on, the group context matters most. Both sides know that points here shape who advances from Group D, and the model treats it as a one-off on a neutral footing.
Verdict: Australia are favoured at 42%, but with the draw at 21% and the underdog live, this is closer than the table suggests. A probability is not a certainty.
Prediction by a 5-factor model (ELO, form, metrics, home advantage, head-to-head) plus Monte Carlo simulation. A probability is not a certainty. See all predictions.