Match Prediction
Scotland vs Brazil
Matchday 3 · Group C · Wed, Jun 24, 6:00 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Form guide
Last 10 internationals, most recent first (includes World Cup matches).
Full time
Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil
Brazil won. Our prediction was correct.
We predicted: Brazil to win
Scotland and Brazil meet in Group C of the 2026 World Cup, but on paper this is a clear mismatch. Brazil (FIFA #6, 1761 ELO) tower over Scotland (#43, 1498) by 263 rating points, the kind of gap that historically converts into a comfortable favourite. Our model gives the edge accordingly.
Form backs the read up to a point. Scotland are 5-0-5 (W-D-L) across their last 10, while Brazil have gone 6-2-2 in their last 10. Brazil arrive in the better recent rhythm, which the model weights alongside ranking and team metrics.
With no recent head-to-head to lean on, the group context matters most. Both sides know that points here shape who advances from Group C, and the model treats it as a one-off on a neutral footing.
Verdict: Brazil are favoured at 54%, but with the draw at 16% and the underdog live, this is closer than the table suggests. A probability is not a certainty.
Prediction by a 5-factor model (ELO, form, metrics, home advantage, head-to-head) plus Monte Carlo simulation. A probability is not a certainty. See all predictions.