Match Prediction
Senegal vs Iraq
Matchday 3 · Group I · Fri, Jun 26, 3:00 PM ET · BMO Field, Toronto
Full time
Senegal 5 - 0 Iraq
Senegal won. Our prediction was correct.
We predicted: Senegal to win
Senegal and Iraq meet in Group I of the 2026 World Cup, but on paper this is a clear mismatch. Senegal (FIFA #13, 1692 ELO) tower over Iraq (#57, 1447) by 245 rating points, the kind of gap that historically converts into a comfortable favourite. Our model gives the edge accordingly.
With no recent head-to-head to lean on, the group context matters most. Both sides know that points here shape who advances from Group I, and the model treats it as a one-off on a neutral footing.
Verdict: Senegal are favoured at 58%, but with the draw at 14% and the underdog live, this is closer than the table suggests. A probability is not a certainty.
Prediction by a 5-factor model (ELO, form, metrics, home advantage, head-to-head) plus Monte Carlo simulation. A probability is not a certainty. See all predictions.