Match Prediction
Uruguay vs Cabo Verde
Matchday 2 · Group H · Sun, Jun 21, 6:00 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens
Full time
Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde
It finished level. Our prediction missed.
We predicted: Uruguay to win
Uruguay and Cabo Verde meet in Group H of the 2026 World Cup, but on paper this is a clear mismatch. Uruguay (FIFA #17, 1673 ELO) tower over Cabo Verde (#68, 1371) by 302 rating points, the kind of gap that historically converts into a comfortable favourite. Our model gives the edge accordingly.
With no recent head-to-head to lean on, the group context matters most. Both sides know that points here shape who advances from Group H, and the model treats it as a one-off on a neutral footing.
Verdict: Uruguay are favoured at 62%, but with the draw at 13% and the underdog live, this is closer than the table suggests. A probability is not a certainty.
Prediction by a 5-factor model (ELO, form, metrics, home advantage, head-to-head) plus Monte Carlo simulation. A probability is not a certainty. See all predictions.