Match Prediction
USA vs Paraguay
Matchday 1 · Group D · Fri, Jun 12, 9:00 PM ET · SoFi Stadium, Inglewood
Predicted: USA to win
USA face Paraguay as the two sides meet in Group D of the 2026 World Cup. USA (#16) carry a meaningful 169-point ELO advantage over Paraguay (#41), enough to make them favourites without making the result a foregone conclusion.
With no recent head-to-head to lean on, the group context matters most. Both sides know that points here shape who advances from Group D, and the model treats it as a one-off on a neutral footing.
Verdict: USA are favoured at 54%, but with the draw at 16% and the underdog live, this is closer than the table suggests. A probability is not a certainty.
Prediction by a 5-factor model (ELO, form, metrics, home advantage, head-to-head) plus Monte Carlo simulation. A probability is not a certainty. See all predictions.