Match Prediction
Iraq vs Norway
Matchday 1 · Group I · Tue, Jun 16, 6:00 PM ET · Gillette Stadium, Boston
Full time
Iraq 1 - 4 Norway
Norway won. Our prediction was correct.
We predicted: Norway to win
Iraq face Norway as the two sides meet in Group I of the 2026 World Cup. Norway (#31) carry a meaningful 104-point ELO advantage over Iraq (#57), enough to make them favourites without making the result a foregone conclusion.
With no recent head-to-head to lean on, the group context matters most. Both sides know that points here shape who advances from Group I, and the model treats it as a one-off on a neutral footing.
Verdict: Norway are favoured at 47%, but with the draw at 19% and the underdog live, this is closer than the table suggests. A probability is not a certainty.
Prediction by a 5-factor model (ELO, form, metrics, home advantage, head-to-head) plus Monte Carlo simulation. A probability is not a certainty. See all predictions.